The application of Fuzzy Delphi Method (FDM) and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) for evaluating marine casualties

Akbar Etebarian, Alireza Shirvani, Iraj Soltani, Ali Moradi

Abstract

Marine accidents, particularly those that involve pollution and large fatalities, bring into question the safety of shipping and the quality of ships and their crews. Whether or not such questions are justified, it is marine accidents that provide a poor image of the industry, which attract considerable attention. Incidents that particularly attract attention are those causing loss of life, pollution of the environment and the loss of ship and or cargo. Usually, People have a tendency to focus on the consequences of an accident rather than its root causes, Kristiansen S, (2005), so MCDM1 could improve to find the root cause elements by providing more precise decision parameters.Due to the complexity of Marine accident investigation, this study aims to provide a systematic approach to determine the degree of most influence parameters (cause and effect) in accident occurrence, in order to improve marine safety in direction of Good Governance; in the study two phase procedures are proposed. The first stage utilizes Fuzzy Delphi Method to obtain the critical factors of the Marine Accident Investigation by interviewing the related connoisseurs. In the second stage, Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process is applied to pair fuzzy numbers as the measurable indices and finally to rank degree of each influence criterion within accident investigation. This study considers 1 Goal, 4 Aspects and 31 Criteria (Parameters), and establishes a ranking model that provides decision makers to assess the prior ordering of reasons and sorts by most effective parameter involved Marine Accident occurrence. The empirical study indicates that the ” People, Working and living conditions, Effect ” is the high ranking aspect and “Ability, Skills and knowledge of workers” is the most important evaluation criterion considered in overall experts view derived from Fuzzy Delphi Analytical Hierarchy Processing (FDAHP). The demonstration of how the prior order of accident maker parameters of connoisseurs is addressed as well. Therefore, ranking the priority of every influencing criterion (parameter), shall help the decision makers in marine transportation, to emphasize the area to improve and act accordingly to prevent future marine accidents.

Keywords: Marine Accident, Accident Investigation, Good Governance, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Fuzzy Delphi Method (FDM), Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP)